times. i recently got a buy rating. year to date it is a real winner up 16%, and today no difference, still higher. lori: research in motion maker, the blackberry, maybe the red area. continuing down more than 20%. ouch, nicole. nicole: research in motion has come under pressure today and the fees they charge the wireless carriers they work with. this is a big chunk of revenue for them and if they change it to a tier model, how will that bring in revenues for research in motion? that uncertainty brings it to a down arrow, but library 10, january 30. lori: listening to the cheering. nothing greater than christmas at the new york stock exchange. david: even if it is an early day. the traders are always waiting until the last minute. see how all the stocks are finishing up with trading down

your session hous lows. as we settle a little bit here. the s&p off, but no industry is doing as badly as the dow jones. we will be talking to individual stocks but not a good way to end the trading. lori: it has been a tough couple of days with all of the nonsense and the fiscal cliff. we will get that in detail on this christmas eve. let's zero in on the semiconductor names among the worst performers today with the semi etf seeing a move to the downside. including intel, texas instruments and farm holdings. david: the whole energy sector, names like chevron, marathon, all posting losses today. lori: retailers themselves were not all in on the holiday spirit on this christmas eve trading

day. back in eagle, staples among the biggest losers in the sector. david: those idiots inside the beltway cannot seem to get it figured out. don't expect one anytime soon. lawmakers are gone for the holiday, so does the white house even want a deal by the new year, or automatic tax hikes what they want in order to balance their spending? more on that coming up, does the president really wants to go over the fiscal cliff? lori: cannot wait to hear where we stand, the latest negotiation or any at all on the cliff. spending specifically on toys. there is not a runaway must-have toy this year, but there are some hits and a few misses as well. what will be under the trees or what will be stuck on the retail shelves. david: but first, we will tell you what drove the market today with today's "data download."

continued gridlock in the beltway sending stocks lower. the shorts in the day of trading. all three major indices closing the red with the dow closing the best losses, energy and utilities led the declines while materials and consumer discretionary outperform. natural gas a big mover in the energy pits falling more than 2% despite colder weather in much of the country this week forecasters expecting mild temperatures in january and that might have hurt natural gas a little bit. the japanese yen falling to a 20 month low against the dollar. coming to the back of comments from the incoming prime minister who says he will consider changing the law governing central banks getting more politically involved. lori: we have larry in the pits of the cme. telling us why the pessimism on the fiscal cliff is making him bullish, believe it or not. and it is time to get defensive.

larry, we will begin with you. how can you see this sorting out at the end of the day, a big deal, a little deal, no deal at all, what is the outcome? larry: the odds are pointing to a mini deal. expectations for a big deal are fading and fading quickly. it looks like it will be a mini deal with the tax extension will help those making under $250,000 per year and will not address the debt ceiling or spending or anything like that, it will be a patchwork of things that will make the market very nervous but given it is christmas eve, people are little bit negative but most christmas shopping. david: larry, round this time the irs issues its formal withholding guidance for the coming year.

>> it'll be a bigger document than what we are used to because it will be giving guidance they are not sure even how to give guidance because they don't know what will happen. what i have been told by traders and people working in that industry is they will get guidelines assuming some sort of mini deal gets done. this is how you shall proceed. an amazing train wreck. lori: lookahead, what happens if we borrow past the debt ceiling, how at risk is our country of another ratings downgraded and what will the ramifications be? >> we're going to be running out of funding even this week. it is bad, but they have ways to patch this together with shoestring and bubblegum that can get us through february. given a warning of a downgrade won't be well taken by the market but let's keep in mind the market is pricing that in right now so maybe we're thinking that is not going to happen right now and a patchwork

model may be put in place and we won't even need to worry about a warning from the other rating agencies. david: let's bring in the market town now. founder and chairman, and a senior wealth strategist with her mere wealth first allied securities. you think we're going to go over the fiscal cliff, happen to agree with you or at least i think some people actually want that to happen but you have to advise your clients may certainly if you believe we are going up the fiscal cliff, would you tell your investment clients to do? >> currently advising them to accelerate their income right now and two for deductions based on strategies that we are having in discussions with my client and their accountant. i'm also telling them to be very defensive. our baseline scenario is we head into the new year is for slow

but steady growth. coupled with low inflation and reasonable and attractive valuation of equity. lori: let me get you to respond to that outlook. they'rtheir more positive becauf the cliff. >> i think everybody seems to be mesmerized by the discussion of the fiscal cliff in th and the , check stock prices were based on earnings outlooks in the economy. lori: everybody is ignoring the fundamentals right now. when we can we get back to the fundamentals and ignore politics, if ever a time in the picture? >> maybe the super bowl ads versus the fiscal cliff read lori: you make a great point, carry on. >> some point we will solve the fiscal cliff, kick the can down the road, have a grand bargain, no bargain, but it will be old news, not the current news. david: will be talking with the retail sector coming up, but we are getting a lot of mixed

signals of what is happening this holiday season. what are you sensing? speak of the retail sector will perform well, just don't think it will exceed analyst or wall street expectations. i think everything that needed to be done in terms of consumer investment purchasing in the aftermath of sandy took place. on the other hand if you noticed that has not been a lot of promotions from the major retailers past the holiday weekend that kicked off. i believe retail will do reasonably well, the question is will it exceed last year's performance? lori: i know apple is one of the companies you are bullish on. where's the upside, where do you see the trajectory? >> i have three sons all in their 20s, and they are they'red to the apple ecosystem for years to come. i think apple is a play that

will not be the sony people talk about. i think apple has a place in the public mind that will be tough to remove. lori: is this an entry point? >> if you back out the cash, trading eight or nine times earnings depending on who you're looking at, given the outlook and not just the u.s. consumer, but now you talk about sales in china just started, there's a lot of catalyst and the stock is cheap. david: despite your pessimism of what might happen in the economy, you're optimistic about what's happening with homebuilders. yowe think this is a real burste are seeing, one that will last? >> i agree, pointed homebuilders enjoying a nice ride and you are seeing that, it was priced into the market probably two quarters ago, but it will continue and i

think that part of the economy will help out over the homebuilders themselves but investors in the market. david: continued for how long? >> my sense is throughout 2013. you can really count on this resurgence from the home building sector. lori: gary, remaining time, what is your preferred asset allocation? >> right now we are allocating model the balanced portfolio to be about 43% equities split equally between domestic and foreign. we're about 15% traditional bonds, 30% non-traditional bonds. and we're about 10% of real assets, energy, precious metals. about 2% cash.

lori: great detail, thanks, gentlemen. david: thanks both of you. >> thank you for having us. >> happy holidays. lori: back at you. it is christmas eve day. not a lawmaker could be heard. days away from tax hikes for all of us. and where are lawmakers? they are away for the holidays. up next off to d.c. for the latest. david: and a look at why we may not have a deal anytime soon and who that could actually benefit. keep it right here on fox business. want to know what i did in theast five hours? i played a round of golf. then i read a book while teaching myself how to play guitar; ran ten miles while knitting myself a sweater;

jumped out of a plane. finally, i became a ping pong master while recording my debut album. w you ask? with 5-hour energy. i get hours of energy now -- no crash later. wait to see the next five hours.

lori: the dow closed down 50 points largely due to preparation from washington. she is a daily deal sites are falling today. let's go back to nicole at the new york stock exchange for more. nicole: we're taking a look at group on down 4% today, still under pressure after they made an acquisition. $4.63 per share, they have acquired commerce interface. the company which they have been working since the middle of 2012, april 2012 in order to

streamline some of the operations. it is technology management, a way they can work with some of the thousands of existing vendors, supposedly will help them to better support the merchants overseas going forward and give them exclusivity with this particular company but this acquisition today puts them under pressure about 4% and that is why you're seeing it down about $0.19. merry christmas, everybody. david: ilog one of my groupon things to expire. it is not a total loss. lori: it is not front and center in people's priority list. david: s&p futures are closed right now. that's about to larry at the cme to see how things might work out during christmas time. what do you think, larry? larry: 1430 used to be the support coming ou, now it is the

resistance. the very key support. what is important for us all to remember, forget about the fiscal cliff, what is driving the stock market and keeping us where we are right now? a lot of it is consumer discretionary spending not because of christmas but because gasoline prices have dropped 17%. take advantage of all time low rates giving us a push hold in the market up right now and a lot of people are not talking about that right now. lori: do you think that is enough to prevent the s&p futures from hitting the 1400 level support here in the next couple of weeks? many people would argue more headwinds than tailwinds right now. >larry: we are angry mules kick away from 1400. people are just perplexed, why is the market holding up like it

is with all the bad stuff around us. consumer discretionary spending has helped giving us a tailwind. blowing through it in a heartbeat. lori: great to have you, merry christmas. david: teetering on the edge of the cliff. speaking of the fiscal cliff, talks on hold until after christmas and president obama and house speaker john boehner have not spoken since friday. lori: is there any hope for a deal? are you the last man there? >> a staff is here. the staff is in this but all eyes are on the senate when it returns this thursday to try and get a deal to avoid getting off a cliff the past friday before the president left for the holiday, he proposed a limited measure to avoid all of the cliff when speaker john boehner plan b. got scuttled.

the president wants to extend the bush tax cuts and avoid some of the deep spending cuts. white house spokesperson says discussions continue between the administration and capitol hill. in july you may recall senate democrats passed an extension of the middle-class tax codes for the year. those folks making less than $250,000 per year at a cost of 157 billion. also passing the alternative minimum tax for $92 billion. mitch mcconnell is critical to hammering out a deal because he can filibuster any legislation, but his spokesman told me this morning nothing new to report. we don't know what senator reid plans to bring to the senate for a vote. >> truth of the matter is if we do fall off the cliff, he will come back, propose just what he proposed yesterday leaving washington, and will end up

adopting at the washed up at the market in such turmoil and the lack of confidence, why don't we go ahead and act now. >> most numbers are used to spending the christmas to new year's at home, it is time to go back to the table. if anybody sees these representatives from the house in line shops are getting their christmas turkey wish them a merry christmas, civil and say go back to the table, not her own table, the table in washington. >> so there's a group of senate republicans who would vote for taxes on wealthier taxpayers now to get that done, avoid the cliff, move on and fight for spending cuts when the president asks to raise the debt ceiling in february or march. the president and speaker said it will cut their vacation short to return to washington later this week to try and work something out. we are on standby. david: thank you very much. you just heard a high-stakes game playing out in d.c.

although they're off the field for the holiday, the clock is still ticking away. my next guest says maybe the white house wants that. find out why coming up. lori: the bopper returns to france? stay tuned for this dvd. and david french accent coming up next. that whopper, but of course. [ woman ] ring. ring. progresso.

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lori: how about a quick speed read of the other headlines, five stories, one minute, that is how it goes. u.s. immigration and customs enforcement auditing more countries than ever for illegal immigrants on the payroll. increasing from 250 in 2007, more than 3000 in 2012. projections showing movie attendance will end the year 5.6% after seeing two straight years of declines. not everybody is expected to be a winner with 3d attendance at family films posting a decline. "the hobbit" taking home 36.7 million over the weekend beating out the others. bringing in a total of $434 million in global ticket sales. according to the "wall street journal" some online retailers changed the strategy toward a consumer base on their location. because change pricing items while product offering to modify after detecting where the shopper is located. for the first time, urging a serving whoppers in france. opening a restaurant at the

airport this weekend. there is your speed read for you. david: even though the fiscal cliff talks are deadlocked, some lawmakers are hopeful we will get a deal in the coming days but my next guest things we will go over the edge and it is because the white house doesn't want a deal. joining me now, president for americans for limited government. so why doesn't the administration want a deal, why do they want to go over the fiscal cliff? can you hear us? okay, we're going to have to fix bills hearing problems. he will take a quick break and come back with bill wilson right after this. stay tuned. you see your big picture. with the fidelity guided portfolio summary, you choose which accounts to track and use fidelity's analytics to spot trends, gain insights, and figure out what you want to do next. all in one place. i'm meredith stoddard

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>> phil wilson can't hear us now. sorry about the difficulty with your hearing device. let's talk about the president going off the fiscal cliff or not. >> i think it is crystal clear that that is the case. his response was to offer, what he called, a small proposal. extend another $30 billion, no spending cuts and let's go back to my tax plan. that is not trying to move the

ball forward. that is rubbing salt in the world. i think it is crystal clear that he wants to go off the fiscal cliff. david: let's be clear about what he has done and wants to do. he increases 25% of the baseline. if we go over the fiscal cliff, he gets a lot more money. it is not just rich people paying out. he will get a lot more money, so he does want that. he will get a cut into military. if anything goes wrong, he can blame republicans for it. >> right. from his standpoint, it is a win-win across the board to go over the cliff, have the automatic sequester cuts, take the tax increases, go back to the clinton era rates and that

when the economy reacts, as it most certainly will, negatively, then he will blame the republicans for putting us into a recession. david: let's put a fine point on that. what we are suggesting here, they call it an outrageous suggestion, that the president is willing to send this country into a recession to get what he wants. you are really saying that? >> i think that he is willing to gamble. i believe that the president and his advisors have looked at the history of congress and they know that when we get a major market of bed, large drop in the stock market, any other reaction from the economy, that those members of congress will immediately concede.

it is the same exact process that happened with tarp back in 2008. if you really look at it, what got us to where we are now to that debt ceiling of august 2011, in that case, we had the booties downgrade. it was sufficient to have everyone embrace as a posture idea. david: at one point, speaker boehner was in a meeting with the president. boehnerrsaid what he was willing to compromise on. he said, what do i get back from you, mr. president. the president said i get that for free. in other words, i will not go she ate anything with you. i will not compromise at all.

wireless speaker boehner willing to compromise? >> the president is operating under the theory of politics and power politics. it comes down to nothing more than that. david: since that is a miscalculation, should that be the means for removal of mr. boehner as speaker, will republicans call for his removal? >> i think there is a growing sentiment inside the republican caucus that the speaker is not up to the task. he will have another shot later this week. hopefully, he will step up to the location. david: if he does not, who takes his place? >> well, i think the author, it is a very difficult politics, the odds are high that majority leader cantor would assume the

position. he has been an incredibly loyal soldier to speaker boehner and i think he will continue to be. there is clearly a need for a stronger, tougher negotiator and someone who is playing on the same set of rules as the president. right now, it does not appear that the speaker meets either of those criteria. david. interesting. bill nelson, thank you. [talking over each other] david: now to today's other big story. holiday shopping. forecasts call for a very busy holiday season. tracy: did shoppers live up to those expectations? >> it is a classic answer to that question. it depends on who you ask.

it will still be 4% growth over last year. we will not be there until january. then you get shopper track which says through the week of december 15, sales were actually trending down. they are believing that they will have to revise their overall holiday outlook. they were expecting sales growth of 3.3%. they are predicting 2.5%. online sales, october 208 through just last saturday, wall street was expecting 15% growth. they are saying that that one snapshot is showing that online sales or only increasing 8.4- 8.4-8.5%. you take a look at the stocks, retail stocks, they are up 20%. online sales are up. when you look at the holiday

sales season, it will depend on what happens after january. what you have on merging is they say it will be fine. do not panic. you have the people on shopper track saying it will not be as good as we thought. back to you. tracy: let's talk about some more holiday sales. david: we have an analyst here with us today on why he considers his worst season for toy sales in over 30 years. >> as far as we have data, this is the worst year over year change. down about three-4%. the grand scheme of things, not so bad. david: that is including recession, right? >> yes. tracy: why, what is going on?

i know they made sure they brought their ipad with them so that they would be busy. >> it is a big problem for the toymakers this year. definitely. there is a lot of stuff going on. there is not a lot of excitement this year. what do we have that is hot right now? teenage mutant ninja turtles, furby, what is old is new. these toymakers can be really defensive. tracy: woody and buzz light year were really onto something in the latest "toy story" movie. david: lori, your kids are really young. lori: almost six and four.

>> what happened in two years when all of these guys taking free apps are not around anymore. it is just a different way. david: what about the games industry itself? >> i do not technically cover videogames. lori: i know that disney princesses are very popular. all of the toys arrive from movie characters. that stuff is not generating strong sales? >> not really. if you think about the movies we have had over the last couple years, "ironman two," toy story," a lot of them they already have. david: my kids are too old for this. there are new disney shows.

lori: i am so impressed. david: i am reading from my notes, by the way. there are some sectors that are doing well. lori: is there a toy that is out performing? >> a lot of things that are working better than others. leapfrog is right up there with the tablets. they have leap pad to. lori: you have to imagine the brain trust, the creative forces in these companies. they have to be trying to figure out how to bring back the traditional voice. >> they are about two years. things are thinking about it two

years ago. what works is boring and kids just do not like boring. david: you will not see this repeated next year. david: great to see you. thank you very much. what is hot and what is not that. find out what shifts we can expect in franchises in the new year. lori: we will go live to chicago's midway airport. it could be going private as the city looks for new revenue. ♪

♪ >> i am adam shapiro with your fox business brief. it was another down day for the

markets. they continue to focus on the fiscal cliff. more americans are getting a better handle on their debt. the "wall street journal" reports u.s. households spent just over 10% in the third quarter of the year. that is the lowest level since 1983, according to the federal reserve. while the ultimate procrastinators are hitting stores today, retailers are also bracing for a busy day on wednesday. industry watchers say the lines were returning gifts will be as long, if not longer, then the lines consumers had to buy the things in the first place. that is the latest from the fox business network. giving you the power to prosper. ♪

lori: how has the franchise industry than coping with the fiscal uncertainty coming out of

washington? joining us now is nick powell. welcome. >> thank you. thank you for having me. lori: i have to imagine this is probably one of the most difficult times. what do you think? >> well, it is obviously dependent on the way you look at the statistics. i think it is a great opportunity to get into the franchise market right now. yes, from tax uncertainty, it is deathly a challenging time. lori: that is a great point that you bring up. the industry, as a whole, is coming back. is that enough to offset what could be higher taxes? >> many are concerned with taxes. a high percentage of them.

i would say the fear of the unknown is probably the biggest challenge. for a franchisee, there is tremendous opportunity out there. taxes or obamacare will not influence negatively those who will do a great job opening their own business. lori: because of the political climate, you do see shifts in the types of franchises that are the most profitable. child care, senior citizen care, moving companies -- why is that? >> it will absolutely be the year of that. there are lower startup costs. they are looking at businesses that will be able to make the most money. obviously, being passionate about it is critical. at the end of the day, you will make more dollars with a service brand than anything else. lori: explain that to me in more

detail why the restaurant industry is taking a back seat? >> we did not say it is taking a backseat, more savvy entrepreneurs are getting into the market now. financially, you will take a lower net percentage typically been on a service brand. those that have a little less to invest in -- lori: that is fascinating. every street corner, wherever you are, there seems to be a new frozen yogurt shop popping up. >> the challenge with frozen yogurt is, you do not really

need to open up a franchise to be in the business. there is no point of differentiation among them. there is a print out of chicago called forever yogurt that is testing coffee to gather as a way to expand its bottom line. those that are getting creative will probably have a place in the next couple years. other than that, it will definitely decrease. lori: mom-and-pop shops, what is the climate right now? >> it is tough. the fear of the unknown, what will happen with the fiscal cliff, what will happen with healthcare, makes those looking to invest a little bit nervous. we are still seeing significant growth over the last two years because they are taking the right approach to growing their franchise plans.

lori: getting great advice from you. mr. nick powell, thank you. >> thank you for having me. david: if you need a last minute gift, how about a $1000 bike. we will tell you what makes this limited edition so unique. cities looking to make money by privatizing park and even airports. jeff flock has the story. jeff: i come to you from the giant parking garage at midway airport. it could be a multibillion dollar payday. is it a good idea or a bad idea? stay tuned. we will discuss. ♪

lori: the mayor of chicago renewing efforts to privatize the city's second largest airport. david: the proposal comes after a proposal from his predecessor. jeff flock is live at the airport. it is one of the most exciting airports in america. jeff: it is exciting because when you take off, you kind of

look into the houses of various people. it is right in the center of a residential area. i am in a parking garage. this is one of the areas that they are hoping to privatize. you know, this shows off a lot of cash. they will privatize the whole airport, though. midway used to be the nation's busiest airport, believe it or not. now, just three big airlines fly out of here. southwest, frontier and delta. it still goes off a lot of cash. very attractive to private industry that would come in but they would lease the airport for a specific amount of time and give the city a certain amount of money. the problem is, when they privatize the parking meters in chicago, they have a billion and a half doll years. the problem was they took that and spent it.

mayor manuel says this time he will not spend it all up. he promises. david: we know about those promises. get back on that shot, if you can. that would be a shot that alfred hitchcock would be jealous of. jeff: that is your old friend from new york. he is complimenting you, lori. they love you. david: it does show you that you are in the city part of the airport. they are virtually in the same place. jeff: exactly. i took off out of here one time and i swear we got so low that i could see what people were watching on tv in their house.

it was scary. lori: do they want to just get the revenue churning as soon as possible. jeff: they have just recently expanded the airport. they would use this money to pay down some of that debt. it could be a good thing. david: if a man or keeps his promise -- jeff: he is pretty friendly. not so bad. david: jeff flock, good to see you. my compliments to lori. people in china blowing off some steam with a pillow fight. this is them just getting ready for a. we will show you what it looked like what the annual event really got going.

keep it right here on fox business. ♪ people are always asking me how we make these geico adverts. so we're taking you behind the scenes. this coffee cup, for example, is computer animated. it's not real. geico's customer satisfaction is quite real though. this computer-animated coffee tastes dreadful. geico. 15 minutes could save you 15 % or more on car insurance. someone get me a latte will ya, please?

david: it is time to go off the desk and over to china for a huge holiday pillow fight. they blew off some steam with a pillow fight. they had the names of bosses and professors on